GrowYourFunds

Retail sales look pretty good, but is there a catch?

Thu, 08 May 2008 17:45:37 -0700

Today was the day for same store sales across the retail sector. Considering how they have done in recent months, the retailers released some pretty impressive numbers as a whole today. There were pockets of real strength along with some very notable weakness. Before going any farther I will point out some of the strongest and weakest releases.

Surprised to the upside

Children's Place (Nasdaq:PLCE) This company is trying to right the ship and the recent sale of the Disney stores back to Disney seems to have helped in a big way already. PLCE came in at +15% vs estimates of 5.3%.
Saks (NYSE:SKS) The same store sales results were great, 23.9%, but it was tempered enthusiasm as the company said that promotions drove those sales, and margins would be hurt.
BJ's Wholesale (NYSE:BJ) Came in at 17.8% higher vs. estimates of 9.8% higher.
Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) Up a staggering 25% vs. an estimate of 8%
Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) Reported a gain of 3.5% vs. estimates for 1.8%.
Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF) Reported a 6% gain vs. estimates for a gain of just 2.4%
Costco (Nasdaq:COST) Reported an 8% gain vs. estimates of a 6.1% gain. This retailer has proven to be the most consistent of them all lately.

Surprises to the downside

The Gap (NYSE:GPS) Same store sales fell 6% vs. estimates of a loss of 1.8%. This company just continues to perpetually disappoint.
Target (NYSE:TGT) Same store sals were up 3.1%, but that fell short of estimates of a gain of 4.2% in the month.
Limited (NYSE:LTD) Results were worse than analysts had forecast, with the company reporting a loss of 5% vs. estimates of a 2.3% loss.
Pacific Sun (Nasdaq:PSUN) Reported an increase of 4%, but fell short of estimates for a 5.6% increase.

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Have interest rates bottomed out? What should the Fed do?

Wed, 07 May 2008 18:39:11 -0700

When the Fed moved to lower interest rates last week it took the fed funds rate down to 2.00%. Around the internet and all across business televisions most guests and most bloggers had proclaimed this the end of the Fed's interest rate cuts. Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing its intended fed funds rate rates have only been this low one other time, and that was in the period just after September 11th, 2001.

Let's put into perspective just how much rates have gone down and how fast they have done so. As of January 21st of this year the fed funds rate was at 4.25%. Here we are, not even four months later, and the rate is not down to 2%. There have been some complain about the Fed being behind the curve in lowering interest rates. The FOMC may have been a tick slow in easing rates to start with, but once they saw the economic problems no one can deny the fact that they acted very aggressively. In fact, twice in the span of two months the Fed lowered interest rates by 75 basis points at a time, which is extremely rare.

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So much for that changing of the guard on wall street!

Mon, 05 May 2008 16:56:12 -0700

Just last week I wrote about the possibility of a changing of the guard on wall street. Inside the post I wondered aloud whether the short-term large losses in oil prices and oil stocks, and commodity prices and commodity stocks while the rest of the market charged higher would become a true change, or just another headfake. In that post I spoke of the fact that there had been many headfakes in this area in the past, and that I would believe it when I saw it. Indeed, this was just another headfake. In less than a week oil has blown through $120 a barrel, and commodity prices and stocks are back on the increase, while the rest of the market lags behind.

Today the Dow lost 88.66, the Nasdaq fell 12.87, and the S&P 500 lots 6.41 points. The strongest sectors on the street were (you probably know before I even write this) basic materials, and energy stocks. Another sign that things were reverting back to old times was the weakness in financials and retailers.

Potash (NYSE:POT) shares rose 3.9% and Bunge Limited (NYSE:BG) rose 4.12% as the agricultural sector benefited from more gains in commodity prices. Gold prices went up nicely today, and many gold stocks did quite well. Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) shares surged 5.23% to lead that group. Steel stocks were led by U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) which jumped 6.23% on strong volume.

Energy stocks were modestly higher on the day as oil prices finished above $120 a barrel for the first time ever. Weatherford International (NYSE:WFT) shares were higher by 2.36%. EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) shares jumped 3.75% on the day. Chesepeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) continued its recent tear, charging higher by another 3.93% today.

Some of the stocks that were most hurt in recent months by the credit crunch were hit hard again today. Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM) fell 7.88% on the day. Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) shares were down 4.1%, while Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) plunged 5.8%.

The retailers were hit pretty hard today as well. Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) lost 3.81% on the day. Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) shares finished lower by 3.32% on slightly larger than average volume. Tiffany's (NYSE:TIF) fell by 3.48% on the day. All of these names are well off their 52 week lows hit a few months ago, but have shown some weakness the last few days.

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Weekly Earnings Preview for May 5th-9th

Sun, 04 May 2008 17:46:20 -0700

Earnings season will continue in high gear this week as many more major companies will report their results. With the FOMC meeting and the jobs data out of the way, earnings will take center stage even more than they have in the last couple of weeks. Here is a look at some of the major earnings reports to watch this coming week:

Monday May 5th

Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) This company should be doing well with the high prices of gold, but some of its peers aren't. They are expected to earn 21 cents per share.
Vulcan Materials (NYSE:VMC) This was a great performing stock in past years, but it has hit hard times in the last year. Can the company turn it around? The market expects 56 cents per share.
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) This company has really hit its stride of late and the market has reacted by bidding its stock up nicely. Expectations are high and investors are looking for $1 per share.

Tuesday May 6th

Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) This is another gold company that has a mixed history with its earnings reports. Can it capitalize on the great environment for gold stocks?
D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) Everyone knows this report will be bad, but a lot of attention will be paid to the future guidance. Investors continue to look for any sign of a bottom in the housing market.
Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) This asset manager has had a lot of turmoil going on in the last few quarters and investors just want to see signs of a turnaround.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX) A lot of questions are still to be answered about the integration from the massive merger of Euronext and the NYSE and investors want answers quickly. The market is expecting 83 cents.
Qwest Corporation (NYSE:Q) This company just can't seem to get it right. Q has been mired down here in the single digits for quite some time. The street is expecting 10 cents.
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) The turnaround seems to be in the making at Disney. Strength from their media side will be expected. The average estimate is for 51 cents per share.

Wednesday May 7th

Allergan (NYSE:AGN) Recent concerns about these results have hit the stock hard. Analysts expect 52 cents per share.
Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq:FWLT) Similar companies have missed their earnings targets, will Foster Wheeler be the next or can it buck the trend?
Transocean (NYSE:RIG) One of my favorite oil names will report Wednesday before the bell. The deepwater business has been very hot of late so expectations are high. The street is looking for $3.34 a share.
Crocs (Nasdaq:CROX) My how the mighty have fallen. Crocs was a darling on the street this time last year, but its shares now sit around $10 a share. If this company doesn't turn it around soon it will be doomed to being just a quick fashion trend with no staying power.

Thursday May 8th

Celgene (Nasdaq:CELG) This stock has been on a wild ride in the last few months. Celgene's report will mostly be watched for the sales and forecast for Revlimid, its monster drug.
NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq:NVDA) NVDA shares have been hit hard as economic worries brought this stock down hard. The street is expecting 38 cents per share.
Priceline.com (Nasdaq:PCLN) The earnings momentum that analysts had been waiting for from this company appears to have gotten here and the stock has responded. Expectations are high for this company.
Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) Can Toyota continue to prove itself the best run company in the auto industry? It reports at 2 am Thursday morning.
Verisign (Nasdaq:VRSN) Verisign has outperformed most of its internet counterparts so investors are obviously optimistic about this company's prospects.

Friday May 9th

Huntsman Corporation (NYSE:HUN) This synthetics maker has missed its earnings estimate the last four quarters so don't expect any huge positive surprises here.

Microsoft abandons offer for Yahoo

Sun, 04 May 2008 15:36:11 -0700

Just yesterday Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) decided it was no longer worth it to pursue Yahoo (Nasdaq:YHOO). The software tech giant pulled its $42.3 billion bid for Yahoo, and decided against raising the offer price. Yesterday there were last minute discussions between Microsoft and Yahoo regarding terms of a possible buyout, but the two sides couldn't agree on a sale price.

Later in the day on Saturday Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer sent Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang a letter saying "clearly a deal is not meant to be." Also inside Ballmer's letter he made it clear that Microsoft had been willing to pay as much as $33 per share for Yahoo, a significant amount higher than its original bid of $29.40 per share. According to Ballmer, Yahoo's board demanded at least $37 per share for Yahoo, which in Microsoft's view was too steep of a price to pay for the struggling internet company.

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The inflation debate heats up.

Sat, 03 May 2008 17:25:10 -0700

Inflation is defined as an increase in the price of a basket of goods and services that is representative of the economy of a whole. It is an upward movement in the average level of prices. Let's talk more on a current economic basis though; what is that state of the inflation level of our economy? It is a highly debated topic right now that has been heated up even more by the recent Federal Reserve monetary policy statement from this past Wednesday.

The culprit is this line from the statement "The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters." The financial news networks were buzzing over that comment from the Fed the rest of the week, with plenty of guests showing the level of food inflation that has taken place already and talking about the energy price issue which has just turned into a circus.

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Changing of the guard or just a headfake?

Thu, 01 May 2008 18:48:40 -0700

Today was an interesting day on Wall Street. The overall market was very strong and the major indices all saw major gains, but if you look inside the sectors you will find an interesting picture. The normal suspects that have led the market for so long were very weak, and the stocks that have been under the most pressure were the strongest.

It was the financials that had the biggest percentage gain of the major sectors today. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) led the banking stocks, gaining 3.36% and 3.07% respectively. American Express (NYSE:AXP) popped higher by 6.89% on very heavy volume. Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) shares gained 5.12% today. Interestingly, IndyMac (NYSE:IMB) saw its shares rise 22% after saying that it sees improvement in its business and reporting a smaller loss than last quarter.

Technology stocks were also very strong today. VMWare (NYSE:VMW) shares rose 5.4% today and it has actually risen by over 50% in the last month. Research in Motion (Nasdaq:RIMM) shares jumped by 5.24% today. Broadcom (Nasdaq:BRCM) rose by 3.54% today, and the stock has made a nice move in the last few days since reporting impressive earnings.

Retail and consumer cyclical names also fared well today. American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) shares rose 3.38% today. Macy's (NYSE:M) gained 3.99% on stronger than average volume. Even the home improvement names did very well today. Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW) charged higher by 4.29% on more than double its normal daily volume.

So what were the weak links? Energy and basic materials. Exxon Mobil's disappointing earnings set the tone, and the drop in oil prices helped doom oil stocks to a rare down day today. Apache Corporation (NYSE:APA) plunged 6.14% after the CEO was a bit cautious on 2008 growth. National Oilwell-Varco (NYSE:NOV) lost 3.94% and has now fallen about 15% in just the past 8 trading sessions. Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) shares plunged 5.09% after trading near its 52 week high just a few days ago. Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) fell 3.26% as gold prices continued to fall from recent high levels.

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Top 5 Energy Stocks to own through a recession

Tue, 29 Apr 2008 18:16:43 -0700

Today will be the final installment in the mini-series I started last week that I have called "The top sectors to own through a recession." The point of this series is to let investors know what kind of stocks work in the economic downturn that we are in now, and in similar recessions in the future. Without further ado, its time to unveil the top five energy stocks to own through a recession.

Top 5 Energy Stocks to own through a recession

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) I'm a big fan of how ConocoPhillips is being run right now. It is a huge integrated oil company, but it is also allowing itself to profit from higher oil prices more than many of its competitors. The yield of 2.2% helps provide a little bit of a buffer on the shares as well.
Transocean (NYSE:RIG) If this were just a list of my favorite energy stocks in general, this one would be number one. It gets eeked out by COP because of COP's size and power, but this company is a great way to play oil. RIG is the undisputed market leader in deepwater drilling and the deepwater drilling market is absolutely on fire. The merger with GlobalSantaFe is proving to be a great strategic move.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) Chesapeake is a market leader in the natural gas area. Natural gas has lagged behind crude oil significantly until lately, when it has started to catch up slightly. It is likely that over the long run natural gas will also do quite well.
Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) SLB provides the necessary oilfield technology services that so many different companies need. SLB is in a strong position because they have services that are difficult to duplicate, and they have a near monopoly in many of their areas.
Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL) This is by far the smallest company on this list, but it is also the best pure growth play on the price of oil and natural gas. If you believe oil and natural gas could continue to move higher through future recessions, this is a stock for you.

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Guest blog- The state of the market

Tue, 29 Apr 2008 16:39:40 -0700

Today I have a terrific guest post from Dan Hung, of The Curious Investor. Dan was gracious enough to provide GrowYourFunds readers with a guest blog regarding the current state of the market. As someone who has read quite a few of Dan's posts, I can tell you that he is very thorough and provides some great analysis. I encourage my readers to signup for his RSS Feed.

Current State of the market- Dan Hung

Markets corrected nearly 20 percent over the last half year or so and, finally, after some violent and panicked selling, it seems that we’re looking at some sort of a bottom. Is it now time to buy? Everything seems cheap now, right? Not so fast.

Many believe that after the excesses of the internet bubble (circa 2000), our markets entered a post-bull trading range not dissimilar to that which U.S. equities saw between 1966 and 1982. What exactly is a post-bull trading range? Essentially, it is a period in which the market “pays back” the wild appreciation that it enjoyed in the years prior. These ranges are characterized by rapid blast offs and violent moves down which ultimately lead the broader markets in a big circle. Contrary to popular belief, these are not periods in which the broad economy is in a prolonged malaise. Instead, these are periods where market participants refuse to reward earnings growth with outsized gains in valuation and higher and higher P/E ratios. The cause of this is the tendency of markets to overshoot reasonable value. At which point, participants lose interest while they wait for reality to catch up with perception.

To illustrate, I’ve included a graph of the S&P 500 and its P/E ratio from 1900 to 2006 (courtesy of Bespokeinvest.typepad.com).

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Tax rebate/economic stimulus check payments have begun

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 17:22:20 -0700

The tax rebate checks that many Americans have been talking about for months and looking forward to are on their way out a little earlier than expected. The first direct deposits have already been made, with about 800,000 Americans receiving their payment by direct deposit earlier today. The direct deposits were initially supposed to begin going out this coming Friday, but the government readied things a little quicker than expected, so the stimulus is coming out early.

Who will be the first to receive their tax rebate checks? The initial schedule is posted here. The payments are being sent out based on the last two digits of your social security number. Those whose last two digits are 00-20 should have received a direct deposit today, so if you fit the bill, check your bank account!

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Bull or Bear- Who cares?

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:57:58 -0700

Today I have a special guest blogger, Doug Greene from Tomorrows Newspaper. I have personally read a lot of Doug's posts over at his blog, and I can tell you that the information he provides is very helpful. In fact the most recent post over at his blog shows just how successful his stock picks have been in the past year. I have tracked many of his picks, and wish I had bought in on more of them myself. Doug does a great job trading through trends and technical analysis. I encourage my readers to make it a habit to check out Doug's blog as often as possible. Below is the guest post he submitted for GrowYourFunds regarding the current state of the market.

Bull or Bear? Who cares? by Doug Greene of Tomorrows Newspaper

These past few months have been extremely volatile; I think we all can agree on that. With rising Oil prices, Gold soaring to $1,000 and much of industry’s credit products in a standstill; it is easy to see why this next Fed meeting is almost irrelevant. Wait did I say irrelevant? Correct. There won’t be a major panic or relief reaction to the decision this week because the markets aren’t dependent on it. The rates have been slashed in the past and now we just need to let the credit and housing problems work themselves out. Now don’t get me wrong, there will be higher volumes and more trading than usually on Fed day, but overall I think the market has already decided where it is going…and that is up.

The major indices have all broken out of classical textbook trading ranges about a week ago. With nice volume and decent price action, I think we have formed bottoms in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This is part of being a good trader: not falling in love with any idea of bullish or bearishness. Next time somebody asks what you are (bull or bear), ask them why it is relevant considering it can change on a dime because you are a disciplined investor that leaves emotion at the door.

Over the last three months I have worked exclusively on volatility measures and directional proprietary indicators, most of which have made tons of money for reader at Tomorrow’s Newspaper. Coming into this year these indicators gave me reasons to be bearish on the economy and markets as a whole, now I have changed my view on things about a week or two ago when the markets stabilized. More recently, my measures are indicating that the markets will move higher on a short term basis. Crude Oil has put in a top and should trade back to $110 short term. Gold…is in free fall so don’t touch it. I am neutral on the grains as they have backed off quite a bit from their highs and could possibly see a snap-back rally. With these predictions in place, I cannot see how the dollar and stock market won’t trade up over the next few weeks.

Weekly Earnings Preview for April 28th-May 2nd

Sun, 27 Apr 2008 16:55:19 -0700

The coming week will be one of the busiest for earnings releases as earnings season hits full stride. The last couple of weeks has shown us just how much individual corporate earnings reports mean to the direction of the market on a daily basis, so I wanted to take a look at some companies that have the potential to move the market this week.

Monday April 28th

Mastercard International (NYSE:MA) Mastercard has been a terrific growth stock since its IPO a little less than two years ago. The stock has risen more than 425% from its first day of trading on the NYSE and the company has set the bar extremely high. Investors are looking for big things here.
Visa (NYSE:V) On the same day of its biggest competitor, Visa will release their first earnings report since becoming a public company. There are a lot of unknowns going into this report, but it will be watched very closely. The market is looking for 55 cents per share.

Tuesday April 29th

Corning Inc. (NYSE:GLW) Corning is expected to report 42 cents per share before the market opens Monday morning. This re-invented tech company sits near the top of its 52 week range, outperforming the market nicely of late.
Express Scripts (Nasdaq:ESRX) While the health benefits companies have been hit hard, the pharmacy benefit management area has been unscathed. ESRX will look to prove that is continuing. Wall Street is looking for 67 cents.
Under Armour (NYSE:UA) UA has had a lot of doubters lately after being a Wall Street darling for some time. This company needs to prove it has staying power.
Masco Corporation (NYSE:MAS) If you want to find a company that has always been a steady earnings performer that is no longer so because of the housing crisis, Masco is the perfect company. Given the problems others have had MAS has actually outperformed, but it has been hurt badly. Will this quarter end that trend?

Wednesday April 30th

Garmin (Nasdaq:GRMN) GRMN is a stock that has taken a quick and rough fall from grace in the past year. Concerns about the sustainable of its growth and the level of competition in the industry have spearheaded this fall. The street is looking for 75 cents.
Ingersoll Rand (NYSE:IR) This machinery name has held up quite well through all the talk of recession and the manufacturing pain on the street. They are expected to report 73 cents Wed. morning.
JDS Uniphase (Nasdaq:JDSU) This was one of the boomers in the early 2000's before the dot com bubble burst, but this company hasn't been able to find its footing since that bubble burst. They are at least marginally profitable right now, and investors will watch closely for future guidance.
Proctor and Gamble (NYSE:PG) This is one of those companies you would expected to not be effected much at all by the economic problems that are hurting many other companies. The street is expecting 81 cents per share.

Thursday May 1st

Burger King (NYSE:BKC) Burger King has slowly been turning itself around quite nicely the last few quarters and investors have high expectations for this quarter as well. The company is expected to report 27 cents Thursday morning.
Eastman Kodak (NYSE:EK) EK is a company that seems to have lost its way and is struggling mightily to get back on track. The street is actually expecting the company to lose 3 cents a share this quarter.
Hologic (Nasdaq:HOLX) This major medical technology company heads the way in many treatments for women's health issues and has been accelerating its growth in the past few quarters. The street is looking for hints as to how the integration of its recent merger with Cytec is going.
Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) This company has done absolutely horribly considering the current price of oil. The stock sits very near its 52 week low and the company has many unanswered questions surrounding its business model.
MetLife (NYSE:MET) This insurance giant has done quite well in the past couple years as many of its competitors have faltered. The street expects $1.48 a share on Thursday after the bell.
Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq:JAVA) Just when you think this company may be getting its act together again, it falters. Future guidance will be more important than anything else for those paying attention to this report.
Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq:WYNN) WYNN is part of the casino group that was so hot for so long, but has come back down to earth quite quickly in the last six months after earnings misses and growth concerns.

Friday May 2nd

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) CVX sit very near a 52 week high as the company profits nicely from the huge rise in crude oil prices. The market is expecting $2.41 on Friday morning.
Nortel Networks (NYSE:NT) Back in 2000 NT was one of the hottest companies on the street, now many are wondering how much longer this company can stay in existance. Management needs to lay out a much better turnaround plan for this one to have a chance.

These are just a few of the notable companies reporting this week. Keep a close eye on all the earnings reports and how they affect the market this week.

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Top 5 Industrial Metals and Mineral stocks to own through a recession

Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:41:41 -0700

Tonight, in continuing with the top five stocks to own in the top five sectors to own during a recession I will visit the industrial metal and mineral stocks. These kind of companies are sometimes seen as a hedge to the economy, especially when the dollar is being driven so much lower as it has of late. Metal and mineral stocks generally capitalize in periods of a weak dollar. This is a broad-based industry, with some of the companies faring a lot better through recessions than others.

Top 5 Metal and Mineral Stocks to own through recessions

Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) This company is growing like weeds right now. The past five years it has grown its sales by an average of 60% a year. Right now the PEG ratio of FCX is a measly 0.32. Though the stock has done extremely well already, it seems that the market is still undervaluing the growth prospects of this company.
Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) Barrick is a terrific hedge inside a portfolio for when recession is looming. This is not a high-growth stock, but a steady and solid performer. Since there is usually a flight to quality in gold when recessions occur, sticking with the biggest and most consistent name in the gold industry makes a lot of sense to me.
Potash (NYSE:POT) This company is a little different than the first two. The company is involved in nonmetallic mineral mining and its number one product is fertilizer. While there is certainly a chance that this type of business could experience some bumps during a recession, the overall growth in the area should lead this stock out of a recession faster than the overall market. The growth rate here is tremendous.
BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) BHP is a metal and minerals giant that deals in many different areas. The company is easily the most diversified in this sector, which makes it a safer investment than most in this area. They have a market leading position in aluminum, nickel, iron ore, diamonds, and many other areas. The balance sheet here supports possible acquisitions in the future and the business model is a very good one.
Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) Silver Wheaton is a leader in the much underappreciated silver industry. This company isn't known to a lot of investors, but it is growing very nicely and its margins are very impressive. This is a good way to try to steady the portfolio while staying under the radar.

As I said in the introduction to this post, the metals and mineral stock area is a little more tricky than the first three sectors I touched on, mainly in that some of the stocks in this industry are very cyclical. You have to be more picky in this industry, but when you fight the right ones, they can do you a lot of good through an economic recession.

Top 5 Consumer Non-Cyclicals to withstand recession

Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:44:53 -0700

In continuing with the mini-series from last week where I looked at the top stock sectors to own during a recession, today it is time to look at the consumer non-cyclicals. This is a group that does well regardless of the economic situation which is precisely what we are looking for when the economy is in flux.

Top 5 Consumer Non-Cyclicals

PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) GrowYourFunds RSS Subscribers shouldn't be surprised to see this one at #1. PEP has a great CEO who knows what she is doing with growing this company internationally. The company has successfully integrated several huge snack brands into its portfolio and the results are really starting to show.
Proctor and Gamble (NYSE:PG) Can you go wrong with a company like Proctor and Gamble? The company is about as steady as they come, and they are in a huge number of businesses that are not cyclically at all. A rising dividend yield of 2.38% doesn't hurt this one either.
Kellogg Company (NYSE:K) This cereal and convenience food maker is a nice and steady way to let a recession play itself out. History tells us that people don't stop eating their cereal in recessions, and K is actually trading cheaper than historical averages.
The Coca Cola Company (NYSE:KO) I know I know, this makes two major beverage distributors, but what can I say, both of them are great companies. Warren Buffett has made a fortune holding Coke through thick and thin. While you shouldn't expect to be able to become a millionaire, the stock is a great one to hang on to.
Tupperware Brands (NYSE:TUP) This is a company that has gotten its act together of late. TUP guided estimates much higher for 2008 just today, and it seems this is no fluke. Although it would have been nice to be in this stock before this run, the company is solid and should do well in the long run.

Consumer non-cylicals are made up of many different kinds of companies, but the common denominator is that they are just what the name would imply, not cyclical. Looking for the top companies in this sector that have consistent earnings growth and solid dividend yields is a great way to withstand an economic recession.

Crude oil just keeps accelerating higher

Tue, 22 Apr 2008 18:52:16 -0700

It's like a broken record day after day in the news we hear "crude oil prices struck a new high." Indeed again today crude oil jumped, nearly touching $120 a barrel before settling at $119.37. Think about that for a minute, crude oil at $120 a barrel. It really is amazing, and it isn't something one could have even thought possible as recently as a couple of years ago. Indeed this most recent surge that crude oil has taken over the last week or so is already starting to find its way to the pumps. The national average for unleaded gas right now is $3.54 per gallon and rising quite quickly.

Each day I hear more and more strategists saying that crude oil cannot keep doing this, but each day it does. The run has been nothing short of amazing, and it shows no signs of slowing down. So has this move been because of the fundamentals of supply vs demand or is it because of speculative trading?

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