On Thursday the June employment report was released by the Labor Department. The news wasn't good, but it could have been worse. Employers cut 62,000 workers in the month of June and the jobless rate held steady at 5.5%. Also in the report, April and May's job losses were increased by 52,000 total. Through the first half of 2008 the U.S. economy has now lost 438,000 jobs. 
Let's put the job losses into a little bit of perspective. In 2002 during the most recent economic recession job losses were averaging over 200,000 a month. What we are seeing right now is not the sign of a deep recession, but there are some signs it could be getting worse rather than better. Just this past week the jobless claims jumped to 404,000, the highest level since March. In general any number above 400,000 is considered recessionary. Any continuance of an increase in the jobless claims numbers will almost certainly show up in the next couple employment reports.
Inside the June non-farm payrolls report we see a continuance of recent trends as far as the sectors hit the hardest. Construction jobs were down by 43,000. Manufacturing jobs were lower by 33,000. Financial Activities were lower by 10,000. Healthcare jobs rose by 15,000 jobs. Government jobs increased by 29,000. Government jobs have been on the increase and some believe they are, to a certain degree, masking larger job losses in other areas.
The fact is that the unemployment rate is liable to rise in a rather significant way in the coming months. Job losses are expected to pickup, as they generally do in this kind of a period when losses build into a snowball effect.
Keep a close eye on the jobless claims in coming weeks as they will likely foretell the breadth of job losses in the coming months ahead.
Job losses are expected to pickup, as they generally do in this kind of a period when losses build into a snowball effect.
Posted by: 花蓮民宿 | January 7, 2009 6:21 AM | Permalink to Comment