
There are many ways to interpret consumer confidence reports and how useful they are to predict consumer spending trends, but there is no denying that today's report was shockingly weak. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 50.4 in June, well below expectations of a decline to 56. This is the fifth weakest level ever recorded by this index and it is the weakest since 1992.
What really stands out to me inside this report is the future Expectations index.
The future Expectations index hit an All-Time low, plunging to a terribly discouraging level of 41. This index tracks how consumers feel about the future of the economy. Obviously, consumers across the country are expressing their belief that the economy is going into the tank in a hurry.
A closer look inside the index shows even more negative news. The labor market is quickly becoming a very worrisome thing for many individuals, with those who say jobs are hard to get increasing to 30.5% and those who believe jobs are plentiful falling to 14.1%. Those expecting fewer jobs in the future jumped to 35.5%, while those expecting more jobs fell to a paltry 8%.
So what does this mean for the future of our economy? Do these numbers really mean that consumer spending will weaken significantly in the future? I believe the answer is yes. I simply don't believe that you can see an all-time low in the expectations index without eventually seeing some pretty substantial fallout in consumer spending levels. It is very likely that the current consumer spending levels are being propped up by the economic stimulus checks. Once those begin to fall off the table, consumers are likely to button it up much tighter.
What do you think this all-time low level for the expectations index means for the economy? What does it mean for the stock market? I'm interested in hearing what readers believe on this very important topic.
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