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May 8
Retail sales look pretty good, but is there a catch?

Today was the day for same store sales across the retail sector. Considering how they have done in recent months, the retailers released some pretty impressive numbers as a whole today. There were pockets of real strength along with some very notable weakness. Before going any farther I will point out some of the strongest and weakest releases.

Surprised to the upsideretail%20sales.jpg

  • Children's Place (Nasdaq:PLCE) This company is trying to right the ship and the recent sale of the Disney stores back to Disney seems to have helped in a big way already. PLCE came in at +15% vs estimates of 5.3%.
  • Saks (NYSE:SKS) The same store sales results were great, 23.9%, but it was tempered enthusiasm as the company said that promotions drove those sales, and margins would be hurt.
  • BJ's Wholesale (NYSE:BJ) Came in at 17.8% higher vs. estimates of 9.8% higher.
  • Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) Up a staggering 25% vs. an estimate of 8%
  • Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) Reported a gain of 3.5% vs. estimates for 1.8%.
  • Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF) Reported a 6% gain vs. estimates for a gain of just 2.4%
  • Costco (Nasdaq:COST) Reported an 8% gain vs. estimates of a 6.1% gain. This retailer has proven to be the most consistent of them all lately.

Surprises to the downside

  • The Gap (NYSE:GPS) Same store sales fell 6% vs. estimates of a loss of 1.8%. This company just continues to perpetually disappoint.
  • Target (NYSE:TGT) Same store sals were up 3.1%, but that fell short of estimates of a gain of 4.2% in the month.
  • Limited (NYSE:LTD) Results were worse than analysts had forecast, with the company reporting a loss of 5% vs. estimates of a 2.3% loss.
  • Pacific Sun (Nasdaq:PSUN) Reported an increase of 4%, but fell short of estimates for a 5.6% increase.

The most curious part of all of this is, if the news was so good then why did the majority of the retailers who beat expectations sell off? It seems as if investors were less impressed as the day went, as most of these retailers finished on their session lows.

It has been well-documented that retailers benefited in April from the early easter and the fact that they had very easy comps to beat from last year. It seems that going into today's numbers, investors had already decided that these numbers didn't mean much to them. Many analysts have already said this month is likely an abberation and it will be much more telling what these numbers say in May and June.

This very well could be a short-term pop, since one would expect some significant weakness out of the consumer right now considering all of the pressures on them. Keep a close eye on those May and June same store sales reports, they might paint a different picture.

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