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May 1
Changing of the guard or just a headfake?

Today was an interesting day on Wall Street. The overall market was very strong and the major indices all saw major gains, but if you look inside the sectors you will find an interesting picture. The normal suspects that have led the market for so long were very weak, and the stocks that have been under the most pressure were the strongest. wall%20street%20bull.jpg

It was the financials that had the biggest percentage gain of the major sectors today. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) led the banking stocks, gaining 3.36% and 3.07% respectively. American Express (NYSE:AXP) popped higher by 6.89% on very heavy volume. Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) shares gained 5.12% today. Interestingly, IndyMac (NYSE:IMB) saw its shares rise 22% after saying that it sees improvement in its business and reporting a smaller loss than last quarter.

Technology stocks were also very strong today. VMWare (NYSE:VMW) shares rose 5.4% today and it has actually risen by over 50% in the last month. Research in Motion (Nasdaq:RIMM) shares jumped by 5.24% today. Broadcom (Nasdaq:BRCM) rose by 3.54% today, and the stock has made a nice move in the last few days since reporting impressive earnings.

Retail and consumer cyclical names also fared well today. American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) shares rose 3.38% today. Macy's (NYSE:M) gained 3.99% on stronger than average volume. Even the home improvement names did very well today. Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW) charged higher by 4.29% on more than double its normal daily volume.

So what were the weak links? Energy and basic materials. Exxon Mobil's disappointing earnings set the tone, and the drop in oil prices helped doom oil stocks to a rare down day today. Apache Corporation (NYSE:APA) plunged 6.14% after the CEO was a bit cautious on 2008 growth. National Oilwell-Varco (NYSE:NOV) lost 3.94% and has now fallen about 15% in just the past 8 trading sessions. Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) shares plunged 5.09% after trading near its 52 week high just a few days ago. Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) fell 3.26% as gold prices continued to fall from recent high levels.

So was today a changing of the guard trade or just a headfake? The most honest answer is only time will tell. One day does not a trend make, and we have seen numerous headfakes in this oil runup. When oil hit $80 it slid back to $70, and people thought its run was over. When agriculture began to lose ground a few months ago, everyone said their run was finished, but now they sit at levels 25 to 30% higher.

The overall market had a pretty impressive move today as investors seem to be gradually becoming more confident that the economic downturn will be fairly short lived. The employment number is tomorrow morning, and don't be surprised if the number is very bad, but its unclear how the market will react. Some analysts believe the market has discounted a very bad employment number, but only time will tell. In the next couple months investors should keep a close eye on retail sales to see if the economic stimulus does much for the retailers and the overall economy.


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» So much for that changing of the guard on wall street! from GrowYourFunds
Just last week I wrote about the possibility of a changing of the guard on wall street. Inside the post I wondered aloud whether the short-term large losses in oil prices and oil stocks, and commodity prices and commodity stocks... [Read More]

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