As the status of our countries economy and our countries stock market seemingly hang in the balance, each piece of economic data takes on increased importance. This is why I wanted to take a look at some of the key economic data for the week ahead and talk about how it might impact the economic picture and the trading in the stock market.
Economic Data Preview
April 14th
- Retail Sales- This is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. This is looked at as a great measure of consumer spending patterns. The market is expecting a gain of 0.1%. Last week's same-store sales results were very weak, so expectations are very low for this number.
April 15th
- Producer Price Index (PPI)- This measure of prices of goods at the wholesale level will be watched for signs of inflation, which could throw a wrench in the plans of the FOMC to continue to lower interest rates. The Core PPI is watched most closely and is expected to rise 0.2%.
April 16th
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)- This is the measure of the prices of goods and services that consumers purchase. This is an even more important measure of inflation than the PPI. Watch the Core CPI number very closely because some believe inflation could be ramping up now, even as our economy slides into a recession. For the good of our economy, investors will be hoping for a very tame number.
- Fed's Beige Book- At 2 pm on Wednesday the Fed's Beige Book will provide investors with a more in-depth look at economic conditions throughout the country.
April 17th
- Initial Claims- Last week the initial claims fell much more than expected to 357,000. This piece of data on Thursday will take on increased importance to see whether last week's drop was the start of a positive trend or a simple blip.
The economic data this week will be scrutinized very closely and will certainly be looked at closely in the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting on April 29th and 30th. Over the last few weeks the economic data has pointed to an almost certain recession which is likely already underway, but the length and depth of the recession are still very unclear. The stock market is forward looking, so the first signs of a possible rebound could provide a buying opportunity.
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