The market has found some footing of late, with the major averages regaining a little bit of the ground that was lost in January's massive and quick selloff, but the positive action is still very tepid. Today is a great showcase of the level of negativity that is built into the market right now. 
Early this morning the futures were pointing to huge gains, and when the market opened it certainly opened quite strong. Unfortunately for the bulls, the opening bell marked the highs of the session. This kind of trading action is at the very least discouraging, and is usually a sign of poor things to come.
From where I sit this looks like the market trying to bottom in what has been a very tough period. I do not think this is the bottom at all, but the action is that of a bottoming process. When the market is trying to put in a bottom it is important to find some kind of footing, even if the times are uncertain. In January it was selloff after selloff, but of late there have been some positive pieces of news that have helped the market hold its ground.
Days like today point to a very likely test of the lows. Though I invest mostly on the fundamentals of the market, I understand that if the lows are breached, many traders will sell without asking questions, so holding those lows are very important.
Fundamentally the employment numbers and the Federal Reserve meetings are the two most important things that we must watch for in the coming months. A recession appears far more likely now than it did just a couple months ago, largely because of the weakness in the employment market. The question may become, will the recession be a prolonged one or a short one? If the recession is a short one, the lows may already be in place since the market is forward looking.
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