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Dec20
Eight stocks to avoid in 2008

As part of our 2008 investment knowledge series I want to take a look today at stocks that investors would do well to avoid in 2008. Most of the time we focus on the stocks that will be the best buys, but it also a good idea to take a peak at stocks that would be good to steer clear from once in a while. Some of the stocks on this list are already hated stocks that will likely continue to struggle next year, while others are high flying stocks that are likely to come back to earth.2008.jpg

Eight Stocks to avoid in 08

  • Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Because of the terrible run its had of late, this one may not fall too much further, but I wouldn't want to get long this stock. Management continues to dodge any question about projections of earnings in the coming year, which is never a good sign. This hog will certainly have its day again at some point, but I don't look for it to be in 2008.
  • Sears Holdings (Nasdaq:SHLD) This stock has had a terrible run already, but it is still very expensive. Eddie Lampert running the company boosted the shares for a long while, but I think that may be waning. The retail business here is going nowhere fast and there seems to be no boost in the near future.
  • Sandisk Corporation (Nasdaq:SNDK) Sandisk is in a business that is far too cyclical for my taste. The technology that they produce is very important, but other companies can do the same thing. This one looks overvalued to me.
  • Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) This is a stock that is hitting its 52 week high today. The company is too highly leveraged to ethanol products, which in my opinion are being deemed less reasonable by the day.
  • KB Home (NYSE:KBH) This stock certainly fits in the already trashed group, but I think this one will be a dog again next year. There is no visibility in housing and KB Home has even underperformed some of its industry peers in its bottom line results.
  • Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) Fannie Mae has already shown some very disappointing results, but I think its just the tip of the iceberg. Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE), which has a safer portfolio of assets has already disclosed severe problems, and I think Fannie will end up in worse shape.
  • Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) This stock has had a great run in the past couple years because it has been considered a China play. The company has yet to be able to meet the lofty expectations investors continue to have for it. Until management proves able to meet expectations I'd stay away from this one.
  • Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX) I actually think that the gold trade got ahead of itself and all those strategists calling for $1,000 gold prices are out of whack with today's reality. I'd avoid the gold producers like Barrick.

What do you think of this list? Am I way off base on some of these stocks? What others should be included?

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1 Comments/Trackbacks




There is absolutely nothing quantifiable or really objective in this article. Statements like "deemed less reasonable," "terrible run," "too cyclical," "may be waning," "will be a dog," etc, are all meaningless unless backed up with facts. Everyone's got an opinion but this one is not supported. Sandisk as an example has a forward (based on 2008 earnings estimates) PE of about 14 right now, so how do you support the statement that it is "overvalued." Sandisk does have it's negatives, but looking at the actual numbers, it would not match your description. Maybe pick fewer stocks but offer fact based/supported analysis.
-Just another opinion.

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