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Oct12
Economic numbers mixed and somewhat puzzling

We had PPI numbers, retail sales numbers, and preliminary consumer confidence numbers all out this morning. I will take a quick look at each of the numbers and then analyze exactly what is confusing economists and investors around the country.us%20economy.jpg

The PPI numbers overall came in stronger than expected, due to rising wholesale food and energy prices. The Labor Department provides a nice view here of the past 3 months and the percentage changes in prices in different categories each month. The overall PPI grew 1.1% today, but the core PPI which excludes food and energy grew just 0.1%. Autos contributed to keeping that core number lower, by losing 1.8% in September.

The retail sales numbers this morning came out stronger than expected, increasing 0.6%. Excluding autos the retail sales number still showed an impressive gain of 0.4% in September. Furniture sales were the weakest inside the report, falling 0.6%. The strongest areas were filling stations, and electronics and appliances stores.

The intial consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan was released this morning and it showed consumer confidence falling to the lowest levels since August 2006. The reading of 82.0 is far from alarming, but it is certainly a sign of a probable slowing in spending upcoming.

How do these numbers go together? Truthfully they do not make a lot of sense as a whole. Retail sales are coming in strong, while consumers are becoming less confident? It seems as if this is one of those situations where consumers are concerned about all their neighbors having trouble, but feel things are plenty good enough for them to keep spending for themselves. The consumer confidence number is clearly being hurt by foreclosures increasing and the terrible housing market. It would be surprising if consumers don't slowdown their spending a little bit after all of the problems around the housing markets. Expect the numbers to become more clear in coming months. One month does not a trend make, which also applies to the confusing numbers of today. I think that the economy is likely to continue growing at a slower pace than it has of late, and these numbers will eventually begin to make some more sense.

I have recently had a couple of comments from readers as to how to improve GrowYourFunds, which I greatly appreciate. If you have any comments regarding how I could improve the content, send me an email at aaron@growyourfunds.com

 


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» Stocks rebounding from yesterday's reversal from GrowYourFunds
Thus far today stocks are rebounding from yesterday's major intraday reversal. The Dow is currently higher by 60, while the Nasdaq is higher by 27. The broader S&P 500 is higher by 5 points. As I said earlier today, the... [Read More]

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