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Sep16
Weekly market preview- September 17th to September 21st

This is the week market participants have waited for over a month. The FOMC monetary policy statement will be announced at approximately 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday the 18th. Will it be a 25 basis point cut, or a 50 basis point cut, or no cut at all? The market is certainly expecting a cut, and a decent percentage of economists are expecting a 50 basis point cut. I'm going to save my predictions for tommorrow evening when I will have a full preview of the Federal Reserve's bernanke_ben.jpgdecision.

Though the FOMC meeting is the biggest event of the week, there are plenty of extremely important earnings reports out this week.

The group that will get by far the most attention during this week of earnings is the brokers. These major investment banks have been crushed by the credit market problems in the past couple months, and everyone on wall street is curious to see just how bad things have been in the third quarter. This is a situation where everyone on wall street knows the earnings will be bad, and are holding their breath that they aren't disastrous.

The four investment banks reporting earnings this week are Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE:LEH), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), and The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE:BSC). Lehman will get the group's earnings started on Tuesday with its earnings report. The importance of these four earnings reports is difficult to overstate. It is very difficult to see any sustained market rally without the financials participating.

In the technology group, a couple of software names will report this week. Adobe Systems (Nasdaq:ADBE) will report after the close on Monday, while Oracle Corporation (Nasdaq:ORCL) will report Thursday afternoon. Both of these stocks are within striking distance of their 52 week highs, so expectations are fairly high.

Best Buy Inc (NYSE:BBY), the Minnesota based electronics retailer, reports on Tuesday. BBY had been a very strong performer for years, but has recently hit some rough sledding as margins have been on the decline across the board. Best Buy rival Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE:CC) has actually fared far worse and has plunged by more than 65% from its 52 week high set last October. CC will report its earnings on Thursday.

On the economic data side, the Producer Price Index will be released Tuesday morning and the Consumer Price Index will be released Wednesday. The CPI will be watched quite closely right now as it is the best gauge of inflation. A combination of inflationary pressures and an economic slowdown could prove disastrous to the equities market. Housing starts will be released Wednesday morning as well, with market participants watching for any turnaround in the housing market.

The FOMC meeting is clearly the largest event of the week, but continue to look below the surface for more important information this week. The earnings reports out of the big investment banks could be very telling of the future direction of the market, and the inflationary measures will be very important to keep a close eye on as well.


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