
My own philosophy is to stay invested in the market. I saw an example once as follows: Two people decide to invest in the stock market when they are 20. The first one invests on the most expensive day of the year every year for 10 years and then just lets his position move with the market for the next 30 years.
The second person doesn't start investing for 10 years and then invests on the least expensive day of the year every year for the next 30 years. They each invest the same amount each year but the first one only does it for 10 years and the second one does it for 30.
At the end of the 40 years, the first one had more money, because their exposure to the compounding effect of the market more than out weighed the effects of market timing and amount of initial money invested. Now I admit that the period might have been cherry picked, but I believe that compound returns dominate the effects of market timing.
Mr. Hulbert gives the example of one of the most popular market timers Douglas Fabian, who is the editor of a newsletter called Successful Investing. For several decades the newsletter and its predecessor have recommended following a 39-week moving average. The system was to be in the market when it traded above the average of the previous 39-week period, and being in cash when it traded below.
Except for a period in the 1980s performance has not out performed buying and holding the Wilshire 5000 index. In fact, over the last 15 years it has under performed by more than 1% per year. Mr. Fabian recognizes this and has spent the last five years trying to come up with a better system. As bad as his performance is, it is one of the best of the market timing newsletters tracked by Hulbert. And incidentally, the new system Mr. Fabian has come up with has not done any better.
The moral of the article is don't try to time the market. Nobody I know does it very well. I wonder if Bob's 5-Bar System would beat the index going into and out of it according to the signals. What about it Bob? What do your chart books tell you?






Thank you for a wonderful article.
Being young myself, I have been blessed that I was given the opportunity to open my first Roth IRA when I was 16, and contributed yearly ever since.
In my own experience, investing on a consistent basis for an extended period of time is almost a sure bet to beat even the hottest stock pickers.
Thanks again!
Posted by: Jason | July 7, 2006 8:40 AM | Permalink to Comment