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Jul 6
Market Timing - Does It Work?
Regular readers will have noticed that I get many ideas for articles from the newspaper.  This post was triggered by an article in The Wall Street Journal on July 1, 2006 written by Mark Hulbert, founder and editor of Hulbert Financial Digest.  In his column "Weekend Investor" on p. B4 Mr. Hulbert chose to title his piece, "Even Experienced Market Timers Are Searching for Better Formula".

My own philosophy is to stay invested in the market.  I saw an example once as follows: Two people decide to invest in the stock market when they are 20.  The first one invests on the most expensive day of the year every year for 10 years and then just lets his position move with the market for the next 30 years. 

The second person doesn't start investing for 10 years and then invests on the least expensive day of the year every year for the next 30 years.  They each invest the same amount each year but the first one only does it for 10 years and the second one does it for 30. 
At the end of the 40 years, the first one had more money, because their exposure to the compounding effect of the market more than out weighed the effects of market timing and amount of initial money invested.  Now I admit that the period might have been cherry picked, but I believe that compound returns dominate the effects of market timing.

Mr. Hulbert gives the example of one of the most popular market timers Douglas Fabian, who is the editor of a newsletter called Successful Investing.  For several decades the newsletter and its predecessor have recommended following a 39-week moving average.  The system was to be in the market when it traded above the average of the previous 39-week period, and being in cash when it traded below.

Except for a period in the 1980s performance has not out performed buying and holding the Wilshire 5000 index.  In fact, over the last 15 years it has under performed by more than 1% per year.  Mr. Fabian recognizes this and has spent the last five years trying to come up with a better system.  As bad as his performance is, it is one of the best of the market timing newsletters tracked by Hulbert.  And incidentally, the new system Mr. Fabian has come up with has not done any better.

The moral of the article is don't try to time the market.  Nobody I know does it very well.  I wonder if Bob's 5-Bar System would beat the index going into and out of it according to the signals.  What about it Bob?  What do your chart books tell you?

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5 Comments/Trackbacks




Thank you for a wonderful article.

Being young myself, I have been blessed that I was given the opportunity to open my first Roth IRA when I was 16, and contributed yearly ever since.

In my own experience, investing on a consistent basis for an extended period of time is almost a sure bet to beat even the hottest stock pickers.

Thanks again!

Jason, you've been investing since 16. What kinds of things do you invest in? I know readers with kids would be interested. Share some of your experience if you would.

Thanks,
Larry

When my father helped me open my Roth IRA at the age of 16, I purchased two large cap mutual funds. Even though I had no idea what IRAs and mutual funds where, my dad kept telling me that "compounding is your best friend". Because of his wisdom, I have contributed to my IRAs every year since. (and boy have the results been nice!)

Throughout college, I was also fortunate enough to have an job with a 401K. Again, with the guidance from my dad, he explained what exactly a 401K was, how company matching was "free money", and why it was stupid not to take full advantage. (After graduation, I rolled-over 4 years of 401K contributions and earnings into a tradional IRA.)

This past year, I graduated from college, and my take on investing has changed from "something you are just supposed to do" to something I absolutely love and can't learn enough about. At the age of 23, my current portfolio is comprised of (low expense, no load!) mutual funds - approx. 90% stock/10% bonds.

The most important piece of advice I can give parents who are trying to teach their children about investing, is to lead by example. Make it fun for your kids. Even something as simple as paying them interest on their saved allowance will instill values.

Unfortunately, most young people my age (early twenties, fresh out of college) have absolutely no grasp on the importance of saving money, let alone investing. But, in the world of compounding, nothing beats time.

Larry asks me in his posting whether a 5-Bar System, which I described elsewhere on this blog, would beat the Wilshire 5000's performance index, as a reliable market-timing tool. That's a very good question, and I wish I knew the answer. I don't however, because I haven't done enough empirical data analysis to establish any kind of a reliable historical record (let alone an actionable trend) over a sufficient amount of time, using the old 5-Bar System pitted as a simplistic comparative approach against the mighty Wilshire index.

Theoretically, the 5-Bar System should offer a decided advantage, not because it is necessarily very good as a market-timing tool, but because it is a pro-actively managed approach to investing, versus the Wilshire 5000, which is a passive index bogey. Given sufficient time, I might be able to give you a more informed and intelligent answer to your question, if I'm still alive and my brain hasn't completely atrophied by then.

As you know, I only value chart books from a long-term perspective, as an historical analysis tool, not from the perspective of a short-term market-timer (which I am not skilled enough to attempt with any expectation of success, unfortunately).

You might also correctly assume that my answer to a more worthwhile attempt at outperforming the Wilshire index (than using a 5-Bar System) would instead be an investing approach utilizing (1) Modified Dollar-Cost Averaging and (2) Earnings Bands. (Elsewhere buried in this blog, both of those investing tools are also explained in some detail, within one my long, previously posted "educational" commentaries).

And in order to actively manage my Modified Dollar-Cost Averaging approach, so that it might have a fighting chance to outperform your passive index, I would need to establish the appropriate average break-even price points, (the easy way) using those two Lotus or Quattro Pro or Excel spreadsheet templates (Average1.wks & Average2.wks), which I previously uploaded to you for redistribution to any other readers who might care to test this approach.

I've probably forgotten to mention some other critical considerations, in response to your inquiry, but I'm sorry to admit that's the best I can do for you at this time.

Bob, I agree with the purpose and value of the chart book. I don't have one and instead build one downloading data from Bloomberg whenever I need to check something like this out. When I eventually lose access to historical data I will need a chart book or its electronic equivalent.

I appreciate beyond measure your educational comments and hereby recommend them heartily to all readers.

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