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Jun16
Fundamental Indexing Versus Market Downturns

¡Felicitaciones al equipo de Ecuador en lograr pasar al grupo de 16 por primera vez en la competición del Copa Mundial! (Congratulations to the Ecuadorian team on joining the group of 16 for the first time in the World Cup competition!)

There is much Fed speak recently about concern over rising inflation in the United States of America.  The market has taken the Fed seriously and has priced in another 25 basis point (1/4%) on June 29th with a high probability of yet another at the August 8th meeting. 

Sharp readers will have noted in my post on Fundamental Indexing that Jeremy J. Siegel's research showed that dividend weighted indexes did particularly well during bear markets.  If you feel that the Fed is going to overshoot and cause a bear market by raising interest rates too high investing in a dividend weighted index might be a defensive move.

 

Dividends act like coupons on bonds with respect to interest rates.  The higher the cash dividend on a stock the less sensitive that stock is to swings in interest or inflation rates all other things being equal.  Also, cash dividends allow the investor to dollar cost average, reinvesting the dividend in the stock when the price of the stock falls, leading to a larger/faster recovery when the stock price rises.

Professor Siegel's research showed, "From 1926 through 2004, reinvestment of dividends accounted for 96% of the stock market's total return after inflation." WisdomTree Capabilities brochure p. 6

So, if you are bearish about the current stock market, a dividend weighted Fundamental Index might be worth looking into.  You can find some of them at www.wisdomtree.com.

So go out and score a goal for the home team (and make some money while you are at it.)


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