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May17
Inflation Nation - Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid
The US government released monthly CPI data this morning.  Headline CPI was up 0.6% Month over Month (MoM).  Core inflation was up 0.3% MoM for the second month in a row.  CPI Year over Year (YoY) is now up 3.5%.  Mortgage applications were up 4.6% after a drop of 5.8% last month. 

These numbers were hotter than the market expected.  Markets reacted negatively.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 214.28 points.  The S&P 500 was off 21.76 points and the NASDAQ was off 33.33 points.  Not a good day for stocks in the US.  Bonds sold off as well with the 10 year falling from 5.10% at the open to 5.15% at the close of the day.

What other evidence do we have that inflation might be rearing its ugly head?  Since mid-April the dollar (USD) has devalued against the Yen (JPY) going from 118.69 to 109.76 on Tuesday the 16th a fall of 7.52% in a month.  Against the Euro (EUR) the USD has fallen 5.82% for the same dates.
As I mentioned last week commodity prices were reaching highs with copper hitting $8,800 per metric tonne.  The Fed Funds Futures markets have gone from certainty that the Fed would pause here to above 50% probability of a 25 basis point hike on June 29. 

So, what is the bottom line?  I have said for a long time that I think we are in for higher inflation.  This may be the start.  If so, it will not be good for the stock market or for the bond market.  Cash and commodities will be king for a day.

Now go out there and make some money (or protect your savings which might be even more important).

4 Comments/Trackbacks




Your last paragraph makes a critically important point. The last decade distinguished itself as a decade to take advantage of multiple opportunities to make a lot of money. The current decade will be known as the one in which it became crucial to figure out how to preserve all the money you made in the last decade.

So Bob, what would you do to protect the money you made previously during the balance of this decade? What are some strategies you can use?


1. Invest it in asset classes with robust growth potential and reasonable risk. At a minimum, keep your ROA even with inflation. (It could become tricky to beat future cost of living increases).

2. Don't spend down large chunks of the principal on non-earning assets. (In periods of economic uncertainty and inflationary fears, worst expectations can often become self-fulfilled, and non-earning assets become wasting assets.)

3. Don't gamble it away. Find some other less self-destructive vice, and indulge it instead.

4. Don't give it all away. Everybody's got their hand out. Use some discretion and lots of good judgment.

5. Don't do anything really stupid in reaction to a mid-life crisis.

6. Don't get divorced.

7. Exercise strict self-discipline and control over all matters fiscal. Don't rely upon a proxy to manage your assets blindly.

8. Keep educating yourself about helpful financial strategies and money preservation techniques, such as those suggested by the author of this blog. You don't have to employ every idea offered, but you do have to continue educating yourself!

How's that for starters?

Great start! Thanks!

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