
These numbers were hotter than the market expected. Markets reacted negatively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 214.28 points. The S&P 500 was off 21.76 points and the NASDAQ was off 33.33 points. Not a good day for stocks in the US. Bonds sold off as well with the 10 year falling from 5.10% at the open to 5.15% at the close of the day.
What other evidence do we have that inflation might be rearing its ugly head? Since mid-April the dollar (USD) has devalued against the Yen (JPY) going from 118.69 to 109.76 on Tuesday the 16th a fall of 7.52% in a month. Against the Euro (EUR) the USD has fallen 5.82% for the same dates.
As I mentioned last week commodity prices were reaching highs with copper hitting $8,800 per metric tonne. The Fed Funds Futures markets have gone from certainty that the Fed would pause here to above 50% probability of a 25 basis point hike on June 29.
So, what is the bottom line? I have said for a long time that I think we are in for higher inflation. This may be the start. If so, it will not be good for the stock market or for the bond market. Cash and commodities will be king for a day.
Now go out there and make some money (or protect your savings which might be even more important).






Your last paragraph makes a critically important point. The last decade distinguished itself as a decade to take advantage of multiple opportunities to make a lot of money. The current decade will be known as the one in which it became crucial to figure out how to preserve all the money you made in the last decade.
Posted by: Bob Hansell | May 30, 2006 8:18 PM | Permalink to Comment