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May31
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On April 12th I wrote a post on Starmine's predicted surprises. All of the first quarter earnings are in so now we know if there were earning surprises in the direction predicted by Starmine.
Positive Predicted Surprises:
- CELL (Brightpoint Inc) +$0.03 surprise - correct Stock Price 4/12 $25.4167
- CSX (CSX Corp) +$0.19 surprise - correct Stock Price 4/12 $64.87
- GILD (Gilead Sciences Inc) +$0.02 - correct Stock Price 4/12 $61.09
- PD (Phelps Dodge Corp) -$0.28 -incorrect Stock Price 4/12 $85.64
- DRQ (Dril-Quip) +$0.23 -correct Stock Price 4/12 $67.45
So for the positive surprises Starmine got 4 out of 5 correct. Phelps Dodge suffered from having hedged some of their copper production and it cost them $1.46/share.
All prices are closing prices sourced from Bloomberg. Earnings surprises are on a per share basis.
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May30
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My pragmatic and realist friend Bob thought my advice to Bill about saving 1/3rd of his income was essentially impossible. He made several practical suggestions. I agree with them and pass them on. My point was more that there are...
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May29
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Today is a bank and market holiday in the USA. It is when we remember our loved ones who have passed away and honor those who lost their lives in the service of our country. It is our custom to...
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May26
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Diane wrote, "My husband and I have two VULs, a stock/options portfolio (mainly for fun), real estate rental properties and a MSA (medical savings account). Don't laugh - the MSA will probably pay for a hip replacement or something like...
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May25
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Melonie is a 32 year old divorced mother of a 5 year old. Her savings are in a brokerage money market account that pays better than her local credit union. She is selling her house. After paying all her bills...
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May24
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Monica and her husband are both 32. They have, drum roll please, Savings Accounts, Stock Accounts, Roth IRAs Real Estate They save $10-$15k per year and target a 6.0% return. Mr. and Mrs. Monica are meticulous record keepers. They have...
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May23
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Bill is 50 and his wife is 40. They are just starting to save. Bill has a small 401(k) and his wife just opened an IRA account and funded it for the first time. They want to know what they...
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May22
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Easton is 25, saves 10% of his income and is saving for his first house. Bill is 50 and his wife is 40. She just started her first IRA and Bill has a 401(k) that he got a late start...
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May19
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One of the companies several of the credit analysts I met with in my trip to NY last liked was XTO Energy Inc. It was also a company one of the analysts did not like. I thought I would walk...
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May18
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Jonathan Clements of the Wall Street Journal continues to write excellent articles. I recommend you become a regular reader. Yesterday (5/17/2006) he wrote a column titled, "Teen Angst: How the New Tax Law Could Hurt Your College-Savings Plan." Back in...
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May17
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The US government released monthly CPI data this morning. Headline CPI was up 0.6% Month over Month (MoM). Core inflation was up 0.3% MoM for the second month in a row. CPI Year over Year (YoY) is now up 3.5%. ...
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For all of you who have been waiting with baited breath you can take a Certs now. Xstrata (XTA) has made an all cash bid for Falconbridge Ltd (FAL) of CAD$52.5 per share. This is higher than Inco's (N) bid...
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May16
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Another interesting topic came up on my trip to NY last week. What should a company do when it can't earn its cost of capital in a business? International Paper (IP) and Weyerhaeuser (WY) are paper and forest products companies. ...
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May15
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While I was in NY speaking with analysts about the Metals and Mining Sector, a very interesting situation kept coming up. Inco Ltd., a large Canadian company and one of the world's largest producers of nickel has offered to buy...
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May12
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After I wrote my post last night, I had dinner with one of my dearest friends, Becky. She does private wealth management for Wachovia Bank and does it better than anyone I know. We first met in Bogota, Colombia when...
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May11
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I have been in New York City since Tuesday. I went to a conference on cash and short-term bond portfolios. Wednesday and Thursday I have been visiting with analysts from various brokerage houses. I've visited with analysts from Union Bank...
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I have been in New York City since Tuesday. I went to a conference on cash and short-term bond portfolios. Wednesday and Thursday I have been visiting with analysts from various brokerage houses. I've visited with analysts from Union Bank...
Continue Reading
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May10
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When institutional investors refer to Emerging Market Debt, they generally are speaking of debt from the 24 or 32 next largest economies after the OECD 10. It includes countries like Brazil and Mexico, Thailand, Korea and the Philippines, the Czech...
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May 9
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Yesterday I wrote about zero coupon bonds. They are principle only bonds (PO). There is another class of bonds that have home mortgages as collateral for the bonds. These mortgage backed obligations (MBOs) are usually rated AAA although you can buy...
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May 8
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In the bond world it is common to split the principle and interest payment streams. When you do this with a US Treasury Bond, they call it a Strip (the bond is stripped of its interest.) You end up with...
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May 5
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Regular readers know I'm a big advocate of asset diversification. It helps protect you from the normal cycles of the economy. But, sometimes, diversification breaks down. In times of great economic trauma standard correlations break down and things become more...
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May 4
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There was an article in The Wall Street Journal on May 3rd titled, "Latest Advice On Wall Street: Buy Currencies." Eleanor Laise writes that many big brokerage firms are advising their US Dollar based clients to add some other currencies...
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May 3
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I [my friend Dennis] was reading your blog and had a few thoughts I though I might share with you. Our increasing government debt and unbridled spending with the resultant cost of financing has to raise interest rates it isn't...
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There was an article in the Wall Street Journal today on how lots of investors are beating the S&P 500 index over the last 5 years. If you define the S&P 500 as the market, then you are beating the...
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May 2
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I spent some time describing economic cycles and their impact on investments. Today in staff meeting we had an update on where the data show we might be. I'd like to share it with you.In the Liquidity Cycle, we are...
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May 1
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I was looking today at the returns on mutual funds for the month of April. You know I have some interest in momentum strategies so I look for the best returns each month. I have two observations.First, of the 30...
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