Devoted to understanding the basics and fundamentals of investing

In my last two posts I introduced R David Ranson, Ph.D, president of H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics and walked you through a cycle of leading market indicators for various markets.  I also showed where these differed from conventional wisdom.  Now I would like to share his latest US forecast.  This is updated regularly and will be soon.  So, without further ado, the forecast based on all the research and correlations Dr. Ranson and his team have found.

1. Inflation is increasing but will not show up in official indices except very slowly
2. The economy will gradually slow but a recession is highly unlikely
3. The price of oil is high relative to precious metals and will come back into line in the next year or two
4. Economic growth will keep pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates by another 250 basis points or more

1. The outlook for bonds is bearish  
2. Corporate bond spreads will widen (bearish)  
3. Earnings growth should slow and the outlook for stocks is flat  
4. Technology is the most favored equity sector, Communication services the least  
5. The relative outlook for growth, value, small cap and large cap are all about neutral  
6. Over the next five years bonds and stocks will under-perform to an unusual degree but commercial real estate should escape unscathed  
7. Single family home prices will continue to rise.  

You can find Wainwright's website at www.hcwe.com