Devoted to understanding the basics and fundamentals of investing

In my last post I mentioned the linkage between changes in precious metal prices (Gold, Silver, and Platinum) and short term interest rates (positive correlation) and bond prices (negative correlation).  Now I would like to complete the cycle.

Dr. Ranson's research shows that about two years after a rise in the prices of precious metals like gold, that the stock market will be negatively affected.  The price of commercial real estate will be positively affected but its quantity will go down.

Add another year to the cycle and you start to see the feedback in the value of major foreign currencies.  A rise in the price of gold, silver and platinum will lead three years later to an increase in the value of the dollar against other major currencies like the Yen (JPY), the Pound Sterling (Great Britain Pound, GBP), and the Euro (EUR).  And this brings us back to the beginning of the cycle - changes in the price of precious metals.

What are the points that differ from conventional wisdom?

1. The Fed reacts to changes in the prices of precious metals,
2. The best forecast for the stock market comes from changes in the price of gold, silver and platinum two years before and not from the P/E ratio.
3. Rising short-term interest rates are good for commercial real estate prices one year later.
4. Rising interest rates forecast a rise in the value of a currency three to four years out.

These results are not perfect, they are just better than any other test Dr. Ranson has been able to find.  What do you think this means for the forecast right now?  Let me know and we will compare notes.