« R David Ranson, Ph.D & H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics, Inc. | Main | R David Ranson, Ph.D & H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics, Inc. Part III »

Apr 5
R David Ranson & H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics, Inc. Part II
In my last post I mentioned the linkage between changes in precious metal prices (Gold, Silver, and Platinum) and short term interest rates (positive correlation) and bond prices (negative correlation).  Now I would like to complete the cycle.

Dr. Ranson's research shows that about two years after a rise in the prices of precious metals like gold, that the stock market will be negatively affected.  The price of commercial real estate will be positively affected but its quantity will go down.

Add another year to the cycle and you start to see the feedback in the value of major foreign currencies.  A rise in the price of gold, silver and platinum will lead three years later to an increase in the value of the dollar against other major currencies like the Yen (JPY), the Pound Sterling (Great Britain Pound, GBP), and the Euro (EUR).  And this brings us back to the beginning of the cycle - changes in the price of precious metals.

What are the points that differ from conventional wisdom?
  1. The Fed reacts to changes in the prices of precious metals,
  2. The best forecast for the stock market comes from changes in the price of gold, silver and platinum two years before and not from the P/E ratio.
  3. Rising short-term interest rates are good for commercial real estate prices one year later.
  4. Rising interest rates forecast a rise in the value of a currency three to four years out.

These results are not perfect, they are just better than any other test Dr. Ranson has been able to find.  What do you think this means for the forecast right now?  Let me know and we will compare notes.

0 Comments/Trackbacks




submit a trackback

TrackBack URL for this entry:

post a comment

Name, Email Address, and URL are not required fields.





Comment Preview

« R David Ranson, Ph.D & H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics, Inc. | Main | R David Ranson, Ph.D & H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics, Inc. Part III »

Advertise

Related Resources

sponsored ads



Incredible Hall of Acclaim.

subscribe


Prefer Email?
Subscribe below-

Enter your Email:


Powered by FeedBlitz What's this?

Current News

Support This Blog

business social media

Use these fast growing business social media sites to promote your business, feature your products, spotlight your business leaders, create links, and drive traffic back to your company site, all for free!

BIZZlogos - Add your logo - free link to your site
BIZZphotos - Add photos of your products and people
BIZZprofiles - Submit your profile and build your online visibility
BIZZspotlight - Spotlight your business with free links
BIZZvideos - Videos about businesses, products and business people.
BIZZbites - "Digg" for Business - Submit your articles and posts

know more media network

View Network Map

Network Feed List (OPML)

Know More Media Network
Feed


we support unitus

PRWeb

Influencer



GrowYourFunds is a member of the Know More Media network of business related blogs.

Here are some current headlines from some of our business publications:

ProductivityGoal

CallCenterScript

AdHurl

TheBizofKnowledge

LandingTheDeal

CustomersAreAlways

HealthCareVox

WebMetricsGuru

TheInsurancePolicy

MarketingBlurb