
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4538138
I do not intend that this post should be in the same category as basic beliefs of the soul. But, there are some things I've written concerning investing that I believe in. They follow below:
Risk and return are inexrably linked. The higher the return, the higher the risk. Always, no exceptions.
Diversification will allow you to achieve a higher return for a given level of risk.
Beta returns are few, dependable and predictable. They are hard to out perform.
Alpha returns are plentiful, unpredictable and very hard to achieve. Alpha is a zero sum game.
Asset allocation determines more than 90% of the risk in your portfolio. It is a crucial decision.
Time is your friend. The longer you can be exposed to beta, the better your probability of achieving the expected return.
Although I haven't written a post on it, I believe in the miracle of compound interest. It is one of the seven wonders of the investing world. As the saying goes, "Them what understands interest earns it, them what don't pays it."







TRADING AXIOMS:
==============
On RISK:
If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
Always play for meaningful stakes.
Resist the allure of diversification.
On GREED:
Always take your profit too soon.
Decide in advance what gain you want and when you get it, get out.
On HOPE:
When the ship starts to sink, don't pray; jump!
Accept small losses cheerfully and as a fact of life. Expect to experience several small losses while awaiting a large gain.
On FORECASTS:
Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.
On PATTERNS:
Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.
Beware the Historian's Trap, the Chartist's Illusion, the Correlation, and the Gambler's Fallacy.
On MOBILITY:
Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia. Never hesitate to abandon any venture if something more attractive comes into view.
On INTUITION:
A hunch can be trusted if it can be clearly explained.
Never confuse a hunch with a hope.
On RELIGION & THE OCCULT:
It is rather unlikely that God's Devine Plan for the Universe includes making you rich. If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich. A superstition need not be exorcised; it can be enjoyed, provided it is ignored when dealing with reality.
On OPTIMISM & CONFIDENCE:
Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic. If in doubt, blow it out.
On CONSENSUS:
Disregard the majority opinion. It is quite probably wrong. Never follow speculative fads, but don't be afraid to speculate. Often the very best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.
On STUBBORNNESS:
If it doesn't pay off the first time, blow it off and forget it. Never try to save a bad investment by "averaging or doubling down."
On PLANNING:
Long range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under some sembelance of control. Never take seriously the long range plans of others or yourself. Shun all long-term
investments.
Posted by: Bob Hansell | February 13, 2006 2:36 AM | Permalink to Comment